LeBron was always adamant that he wouldn't talk about his impending free agency. Nothing has changed there. At the time, I took what he said for what it was worth: he didn't want to discuss the future during the season. And then he left. It could just as easily been that he was planning on leaving but knew he couldn't admit that during the season if he wanted to continue the Cavs quest for a championship. It's easy to see it that way now, true or not.
But LeBron did talk about one thing that season: his number. At some point, and I think it was actually right after the Cavs had pummelled the Heat in Miami, LeBron claimed he'd be changing his number, and that he believed every team in the league should retire 23 in honor of Michael Jordan (which, by the way, makes Jordan's public schoolyard jibing of LeBron all the more galling: MJ passes up no chance to denigrate his greatest supporter. Stay classy MJ, and keep drafting less than mediocre UNC grads far too high).
It's a strangely little known fact that the Heat, at that point, had only retired 2 numbers: 13 for Dan Marino, and 23 for Michael Jordan. Neither of which ever played for the Heat, but who's keeping track? Saying what he did about league-wide retirement, when only one team, at this point, has done that, was among the clearest ways LeBron could have said he's going to Miami without coming right out and saying it. We all missed it though. I mean, I'm sure someone in Miami or some backwater internet locale might have pieced it together. But we wouldn't have believed it then anyway. Everytime I say we in this, I mean the general public, but more specifically, the general Cleveland public.
Fast-forward four years. It doesn't look like anything so clear ever came out. LeBron is still deflecting talk. He said recently that he owes it to his teammates to talk to them before making a decision. That could just as easily mean he owes it to them to tell them he's leaving first. That's a graciousness he never gave the Cavs, so it would mean he's learned from his mistakes.
Once more though, LeBron has taken a stab at league wide policies. He's talked a few times about how he thinks he deserves a max deal at some point in his career (a tautology if there ever was one). He's also said that he thinks he'd make 50 million a year if there weren't a max level in the NBA. Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves too much, but that sounds a bit like the number retirement talk. LeBron feels like he deserves more money. That's never easy to hear from a multi-millionaire, but if it's ever been true of any multi-millionaire, it's LeBron. He's worth 4-5 times what he's getting paid. No matter how set for life you are, there's a level of professional pride in making what you deserve.
Certainly, it could still all just be that he's meaning exactly what he says, and he has no idea. That would appear to break with how he handled things in 2010. Was the jersey number thing dispositive proof back then? Well, it did turn out to be true. Who can say if his mind was already made up? It probably, at least, proves that he was thinking about Miami as a destination at that point.
It does feel like we have less to go on this time around. That's fine too: LeBron is a human who can make his own decisions as late or early as he'd like. But everyone around the Heat has made it sound like an era is over. Whatever happens, there's going to be a shift out of this Big Three world. Maybe it's a new Big Three for LeBron in another city, or maybe it's LeBron and 11 guys not on the roster right now. Last time LeBron made a speech about the way things should be, he ensured that he wasn't part of the problem as soon as he could and switched his number. Could he do the same and at least insist on getting max money somewhere?
It's still a fact that LeBron keeps a house in Bath Township and spends as much time there as possible. He can obviously afford the nicest temporary home wherever he lives, but there's a pretty clear indicator that Akron is his home and no matter how far his career takes him, he'll always return. Maybe he's reached a time in his life where being home, actually home, most nights, is more important than a scorched earth pursuit of titles. Honestly, Cleveland+LeBron is probably better than Miami-LeBron, even last years iterations. Did it really look, even when they were blowing the Pacers off the court, like that team could win 30 games without LeBron?
From a basketball perspective, LeBron is almost too good. He can say he wants to go where he's in the best position for a title, but wherever he goes automatically becomes that. He could go to Boston or Milwaukee and they would be contenders. It's not just because of how good he is, but how easy it becomes to get quality free agents when he's there. That was as enduring a theme during the Miami run as the Big Three itself. Teams in the lottery this season almost invariably have more than enough cap space to add LeBron and 2 or 3 of the top other non-max Free Agents (or better). This is professional basketball. It doesn't take much more than that with the right coach. When we're talking about "the right situation" some are probably better than others. But LeBron is so good and so attractive, he could make even the worst team better than almost (if not) every other team. I think he knows that, because he's now experienced it. Why did the Spurs beat the Heat then? Because they're the Spurs. They had the right amount of a chip on their shoulder, rest, and the best coach in the world strategizing for a whole year. That's what it takes to beat LeBron on an otherwise lottery-caliber team. Imagine LeBron with the first overall pick in "the best draft in decades" and last year's all-star game MVP. That's a big 3 better than any combination Miami put forward this year (seeing Dwyane Wade is barely a shell of the shell of his former self).
Cleveland or not though, LeBron's actions now seem to suggest that he's in a similar place as 2010. The results may, in fact, mirror those. I don't know that he'll come back, but it seems, right now, that the smart money might actually be on him leaving. We don't have much evidence, but what we do have, and what we know about the past, suggest it.
I'd say he probably at least opts out and demands a max deal requiring Wade and Bosh to opt out and take cuts so they can still get the right free agents to be competitive again. If they don't opt out, I don't see him returning to Miami: he rightfully feels like he deserves a max contract and will go where he can get one.
Those are my thoughts at least; only time will tell.
-Zack
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